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Predictions for 2011

Nathan Strum

Entry posted by Nathan Strum

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It's January, which means it's time to guess incorrectly at what isn't going to happen this year.

 

I mean after the Seahawks beat the Saints today in the playoffs... there pretty-much isn't any point in trying to predict anything. :roll:

 

But first, a recap of my predictions from last year:

 

  • Apple will release a tablet computer - it will be more than just a big iPod... - Right. Mostly. The iPad was just a big iPod though, but managed to transcend that market and effectively kickstart the whole tablet computer market.
  • If Apple's exclusivity deal with AT&T expires, Apple will add another carrier to the iPhone. - Not yet. This was conditional so I wasn't technically wrong ;) , and I'd give it another couple of weeks before this actually happens with Verizon.
  • Final Cut Pro will see a major update this year, with Blu-Ray Studio Pro and Blu-Ray burners in Macs. - Wrong. Wrong, big-time. No new FCP, no Blu-Ray in Macs.
  • Blu-Ray will continue to gain market share, with player prices below $100. - Right. The market share is creeping up, although given the complete ubiquitousness of DVDs, I doubt Blu-Ray will ever approach anything remotely resembling dominance or even parity with DVDs. But at least it's a healthy enough chunk of the market now to be considered a viable format.
  • Star Wars will finally come out on Blu-Ray. - Wrong. But it has been announced for 2011. Pre-order now!
  • Tron will come out on Blu-Ray this year. - Wrong. Disney buried the original Tron in advance of Tron: Legacy, to keep people from being turned off by it. According to a poll on Box Office Mojo, only about 1/2 of those seeing Tron: Legacy have seen the original film. So I guess it worked... ? :ponder:
  • The visual effects in Tron: Legacy will be somewhat disappointing. - Right. Although I wasn't expecting it to be about how bad the fake de-aged Jeff Bridges looked, I still felt the rest of the film fell short most of the time on the whole "epic" scale aspect. Overall though, I did like the film. As of yet though - not enough to have seen it a second time.
  • Gran Turismo 5 for the PS3 will finally ship this year, and boost sales of the PS3. - Half-right. GT5 finally shipped, although it didn't really do much (if anything) to push sales of the console. There are so many good driving games out there, the GT franchise is no longer the undisputed king of the heap, and the reviews seem to indicate that this was less of a leap forward than its predecessors had been.
  • The PS3 will see a larger hard drive added to the $299 base model, but no further price drops until 2011. - Right. But only by 40 GB.
  • The PS3 will pass the XBox 360 in worldwide sales. - Wrong. The PS3 is still down about 5 million units. I blame Halo.
  • The Wii will see a price drop to $149 this year... it will continue to lose ground to the XBox 360 and PS3 (but still remain in first). - Half-wrong. No price drop, but they have lost ground.
  • The successor to the Wii may be announced this year. - Wrong. (Although again - there was a "may" in there. ;) )
  • I won't be doing a separate "Wishful Thinking" section in my predictions this year. Too much extra work. ;) - Right. Hey, that one was easy. :D

 

So, what's up then for 2011?

 

  • Apple will finally release a Verizon iPhone. And people will flock to it. Then discover Verizon has their own problems, and complain about that.
  • Apple will update the iPhone, fixing the antenna-uation problem. And something else people don't like will crop up, and they'll complain about that.
  • Apple will release a new iPad, that's lighter weight, has a camera or two, and more battery life and storage. But that's like predicting Los Angeles will be smoggy. Look for it to ship about one year after the original did. April or May.
  • Apple will remember they make computers too, and release OS X 10.7 ("Lion"). But it will come out so late in the summer, it will be effectively useless as far as getting it into schools for the fall is concerned. It will "iOS-ify" elements of OS X, in an effort to draw in more users to the Mac platform. And it'll work, to some degree.
  • Final Cut Pro will see a much-needed update this year, but it will be generally underwhelming, except for some stuff like facial recognition lifted from iMovie.
  • Still no Blu-Ray Studio Pro, or Blu-Ray players in Macs. Stupid Apple. Doesn't that seem more than a little hypocritical, given Disney's push to sell Blu-Ray discs, and Steve Jobs being Disney's largest shareholder? Yeah, I thought so. :razz: This will force me to learn Adobe Encore, which I am not happy about.
  • Herb Alpert and "Weird Al" Yankovic will both release new albums this year. That's not a prediction - it's just cool. :cool:
  • Tron will come out on Blu-Ray, at around the same time as Tron: Legacy. Figure on late March or April. There will be a ton of extras on both discs. Sadly, a Deluxe Edition of Tron: Legacy will not be hand-delivered to your doorstep by Olivia Wilde.
  • The original Star Wars Trilogy on Blu-Ray will be the stupid Special Edition versions. People all across the internet will heap vitreolic rantings on George Lucas, while simultaneously buying it anyway. The original footage however will be included as bonus material. Within a week, there will be a bittorrent of a re-edited version online.
  • Blah, blah, blah, XBox 360, blah, blah, blah. Whatever. Hackers will still be doing the most interesting things with Kinect.
  • Blah, blah, blah, PS3, blah, blah, blah. But I will end up buying one, sometime during the summer. Burnout Paradise, GT5, Split Second, Mod Nation Racers and Tron: Evolution (despite poor reviews) have made that inevitable.
  • Nintendo will hint at the next generation console that will replace the Wii. But it won't actually be announced until 2012. Their focus this year will be on the 3DS.
  • There will be some pretty sweet homebrew games released for the 2600 this year. :D

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EricBall

Yeah, I've notice that none of the Star Wars Blu-Ray announcement issues makes any mention of what post-theatrical (77 or 81) "enhancements" would be included. Personally, I have the LE DVDs and I see no reason to replace them with a Blu-Ray edition which includes anything more than cosmetic changes.

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Nathan Strum

If they include the original releases, I'll buy them for sure. With Blu-Ray, there's absolutely no reason for them not to, except George's own stubbornness. There's plenty of room on the discs for it, and Blu-Ray can do seamless branching (unlike DVDs which

 

 

 

pause when branching to alternate video tracks). Even if that's not an option, I'll likely buy them anyway... just for all the extras they'll be including this time around.

 

Yeah... I'm whipped. :)

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Nathan Strum

Okay, so one down with the Verizon iPhone.

 

That was easy! :)

 

Now, let's go for two - according to Box Office Spy Blog (via Tron-Sector), Tron: Legacy and the original Tron are heading to Blu-Ray April 11th in the UK, and likely April 12th in the US. At the moment, they only mention the original being part of a two-fer with Tron: Legacy. While that's fine, I just hope they don't use it as an excuse to skimp on the extras.

 

Contrary to that, is The HD Room's assertion that Tron will be getting its own "Special Edition" Blu-Ray release, chock-full-o' goodies.

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EricBall

Two more correct answers:

Apple will release a new iPad, that's lighter weight, has a camera or two, and more battery life and storage. But that's like predicting Los Angeles will be smoggy. Look for it to ship about one year after the original did. April or May.
Tron will come out on Blu-Ray, at around the same time as Tron: Legacy. Figure on late March or April. There will be a ton of extras on both discs. Sadly, a Deluxe Edition of Tron: Legacy will not be hand-delivered to your doorstep by Olivia Wilde.

 

I'm waiting for E3 to say anything about the Wii2 - not enough good definitive info out there. However, I will make the prediction that it won't sell 20M units in the first 12 months.

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Nathan Strum

Speaking of Apple, even though I've been a big supporter of them even during their "beleaguered" years, I never thought I'd read something like this...

 

Apple juggernaut sends ripples through tech world

 

Consumer technology companies reporting financial results this week are looking like rowboats bobbing in the wake of Apple Inc.'s supertanker.

 

Close to oblivion in 1997, Apple is now the world's second-most valuable company, after Exxon Mobil Corp.

 

Apple dethroned Microsoft as the world's most valuable technology company a year ago. In its mid-fall report, it surpassed Microsoft in quarterly revenue. In the January-March period this year, it surpassed Microsoft in net income, too.

 

I've probably said it before, but I really wish I'd had the money to buy a bunch of their stock when it was $12.50.

 

And that was before it split.

 

I wanted to, since I thought it would go up... but never anything like it has.

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Nathan Strum
Nintendo will hint at the next generation console that will replace the Wii. But it won't actually be announced until 2012. Their focus this year will be on the 3DS.

 

I'd say I got that one pretty close. They really haven't announced what the specs are and it's due next year, so I consider that to be a tease. ;)

 

The question of course, is how do you pronounce "Wii U"?

 

A cowboy getting bucked off a horse? "Wheee-OOOOO!"

 

A police siren? "Weeeoooo weeeoooo weeeoooo weeeoooo"

 

As an exasperated sigh? "wheeoooo..."

 

As an insult? "Wii YOU!"

 

As a question? "We, you?"

 

Disgust? "Wii... eewww."

 

Or with an alternate pronunciation, as a statement of indifference? "Wii? Uh."

 

The possibilities are somewhat-less-than-endless. ;)

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EricBall

My PS3 gets used for three things: games, blu-ray and MythTV playback (via DNLA). LotR:EE BD looks spectacular!

 

Fortunately (for my wallet) the 3DS still doesn't have the list of must-have games. 2012 looks like it might bring a few.... Right now my son & I are having a blast playing Plants versus Zombies on the DS.

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