If they do tie everything to a online tether, I think it will be a good thing for retro / home brew / indie gaming. Basically, people will not pay the already high prices for things that are a PITA.
So, if it goes online, there will be nice options for people, and probably a good cost. They need to sell the things anyway, and with retro / indie / home brew out there, it's not like they are the only game in town. Some real market competition is always a good thing.
When people get burned, sales will drop, things will change. The things people do want to play will get played, and there are a lot of cool things to be done with digital distribution. Not as good as having media, but it's not the end of the world either, so long as there are options for everybody, sellers and buyers alike.
Heck, if it were me, I think I would add used sales to the digital marketplace. Somebody makes a bad call, and lists it to capture a nice chunk of their purchase. They buy something else, and the next buyer sees a (stock) available used, and can buy that instead for a nice deal. Maybe they didn't spend as much, so they go ahead and buy a new title too. Truth is, this could make more money.
Right now, if two people buy new games, not happy, and sell them used, the publisher only gets the margin on two new games.
In the scenario I just outlined, they get the two new game margins, plus the lower cost of not shipping media, and they get some margin on the used game purchases, and potentially margins on additional new titles, because that same person who could pay $60, might just pay $80, or $90, and get a two-fer, one used, one new.
They've got choices, and everybody knows it.
For those that really just want media, somebody will step up and do it. All comes down to demand really.
The other positive on this thing is most new titles I've played through are not something I would keep in the longer term. Collecting new titles won't get cool for a long time anyway. And if that's not possible, retro will just grow.
A open PS3 means eventually some nice new Dreamcast style action! That's not a bad thing, and I'm gonna score another PS3, just to have one running. The value of it went way up, and I buy new games, and I would so totally buy home brew / indie titles in a second, just like I do DC today. Win-win, from where I stand.
Of all the new titles, I think I've wanted to play 1/8 of them at most, and I wanted to keep almost zero. The kinds of games I keep are things like SSX, which is always playable, and a whole lot of what is out there is a once or twice run through, and next. Who cares about owning that crap?
Edit: What basically happened with the last round of consoles / piracy / ugliness is I just played a whole hell of a lot less. This happened years ago with commercial software. There is enough open source software out there that I buy NOTHING. Inkscape, Gimp, Open Office, etc... get it done nicely for personal / hobby stuff, even pro stuff. I do all my classroom documentation in those packages now anyway.
The people can and will make their own games. This will happen like it has for commercial software.
So, just play less, and expand retro / indie / home brew, and call it good. That way, when something new is really great, it's no problem to buy that one, play it and have a great time, not worried about the money. And that's the best part, IMHO. When a big effort results in a great game, people will buy. What will probably diminish is the "me-too" titles, and license crap that really is often the same game, different skin. I don't buy those, and won't ever. Now, Square puts out a epic, no sweat! I'll pay up and have a great time. When I'm done, I'm kind of done, waiting for the next one. More good, compelling games, or a bigger retro / indie / home brew scene will result, and both are fine.
And that leaves dollars for other things. Buying home brew is one. Investing in hobby gaming is another. Instead of buying new games, I bought a bunch of cool electronics gear, and know what? I've had a great time, and I learned some great stuff. Others are doing it, so there are games to play too. It's older school, simple stuff, but it's fun.
Let them do this. I think they lose, unless it's a compelling arrangement, IMHO. No worries here on any of it.
Edited by potatohead, Wed Jan 12, 2011 9:48 AM.