kskunk, on Fri Apr 8, 2011 10:57 PM, said:
1) Atari could not have survived another year without launching a product. They had to get investors excited in 1993, which meant announcing an immediate launch. Atari's revenues dropped off a cliff that year, their pending lawsuits were uncertain, their cash was dwindling, and their stock was tanking. Launching a console is VERY expensive. If they had waited another year to polish it, they would be too broke to launch it.
Of course, that's assuming they couldn't have have managed to pull through with the Lynx and Computers alone being pushed in 1993. (maybe a Lynx III in 1993 -reflective color LCDs might have allowed a massive jump in battery lift on top of lower cost and bulk, even if it only ended up roughly 6-bit RGB quality output, that probably would have been well worth it -alongside the backlit models, of course, so as to not lose that market sector)
The computers were pretty much dead in the US, but they still had a glimmer of home in 1992 in Europe, especially with Commodore falling apart and PCs still being sluggish in penetrating the market. (the Falcon '040 had some real potential for the mid-range market on top of the low-end '030 -maybe they could have had an middle-ground model with an '030 on a full 32-bit bus and optional fastRAM -like the TT- and optional FPU -I kind of wonder why the original Falcon wasn't using a 16 MHz 68EC020 given the significantly lower cost and relatively close performance -or why they handn't offered lower cost derivatives of the TT prior to the Falcon)
Atari had probably missed their chance to make a place for themselves in the PC clone market in the US, but maybe that could still have been profitable at the time. (haven't seen much on their PC efforts)
The real issue wasn't revenue/funding alone, but CREDIT/investment capital support for Atari. The weak revenue meant weaker credit, of course (short of the Tramiels being their own creditors and loaning private funds to Atari -that alone could have boosted investor confidence though). And that's what the jaguar really helped with, not profitability, but hype driving lines of credit to facilitate deficit spending to support them in the short run. (given the finanacial reports, the jaguar was never profitable, 1994 came close, but not quite -software R&D, advertising, manufacturing, etc costs continually exceeded net revenue from Jag sales, so the best thing the jag did for Atari was hype them up to extend larger lines of credit)
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3) Everybody knew Saturn and Playstation were launching in Japan in 1994. Third party developers were getting tied up in exclusive agreements month by month, and Atari's only hope to get good original titles was to launch well before the other consoles.
Good original titles are great if you can get them, but having lots of decent (or even average/mediocre) multiplatform titles (even if mostly "shovelware") could have been far more important. As it was, they didn't end up with that many "good" original titles at all, and many of the "original" titles were inspired by common mass market games that would have drawn far more interest than what the Jag got. (ie the hot multiplatform titles on every other system but many that the Jag didn't get, or PC ports that other consoles weren't actually getting, etc)
Having original or exclusive titles may seem important on the surface, but if you don't have "shovelware" to cater to the masses, you're pretty much screwed. Yet, a system with few to no compelling exclusives, but lots of good to decent versions of popular multiplatform games (maybe a few that are significantly better than on others or at least cheaper) could be reasonably successful on the mass market.
Of course, that's sort of a chicken an the egg thing: to get really strong mass market support, you need general popularity and influence to get strong 3rd party support in general; out of pocket licensing of 3rd party games can only go so far, but probably would have been a better option than many of Atari's investments in unique games. (and if they got lucky, many they'd end up with a few really good exclusives too, aside from that, the best "exclusives" would be computer ports that noone else was pushing -there was tons of Lucas Arts, Sierra, Epic Megagames/Apogee, etc, etc titles that were only on PC -in Epic's case, you also had a relatively small developer pushing low-cost, yet fairly compelling games -Jazz Jackrabbit and Blake Stone on the Jaguar could have been pretty cool, let alone Duke Nukem 3D -which went multiplatform, of course)
Of course, not having ANY 4th generation game console (let alone a competitive one) was a huge hurdle to overcome for Atari, not just for market position (for consumers, media, and developers), but for Atari's own financial situation. (with even a mediocre success with a 4th gen home console -something on the level of the 7800's sales, more like the panther might have ended up as- that could have meant a lot of heat would have been taken off the Jaguar's release and greatly reduced Atari's problems of brand recognition on the market, let alone if they actually managed to pull off competitive hardware/marketing/3rd party developer negotiations/etc against Sega and Nintendo in the US and/or Europe)
Heh, maybe even Katz would have stayed if he knew something really big was on the horizon (or come back from his vacation to re-join Atari rather than Sega), or maybe go back to Atari Corp after 1990, when he was replaced by Tom Kalinske at Sega.

(of course, Katz had also favored the offer for Atari Corp to distribute the MegaDrive in the US -offered back in 1988, before the MD even launched in Japan, but, of course, Dave Rosen and Jack Tramiel couldn't agree on the terms of the partnership -mainly contention over what would happen with Europe- so that fell apart of course, Atari was in a much better position than Sega in the US at the time with the 7800 outselling the SMS by a good margin and the MD was totally untested in Japan -plus, if it hadn't been for the radical shift in management at SoA with Katz and Kalinske, the MD could have ended up another SMS-like snafu in the US regardless of the quality/quantity of 1st/2nd party Japanese software -and some of that JP software was facilitated by SoA management too, and obviously the relationships built with western developers -EA likely would have been sued over unlicensed publishing had it not been for Katz deftly managing a favorable licensing agreement with EA that led to a strong relationship with the 2 companies and made EA a key element of the Genesis's US success)
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People don't give the Jaguar enough credit for its success. Yeah, yeah, it didn't beat the Saturn or Playstation. But it did what it was supposed to: It rescued Atari from certain bankruptcy, saved the jobs of dozens of people for 3 years, and earned the founders and investors millions of dollars.
Well, it managed to build up enough hype to partially mitigate some horrible management mistakes made from '89-92 by Atari, and only in the short run (if it hadn't been for the Sega lawsuit winnings, the jag would have done nothing but dragged them deeper into debt given the financial reports from '93-95 that got posted a few months ago).
In that sense, the Lynx (or even computers) could have been more profitable in '93-96 than the Jaguar, though if they lost the Sega lawsuit due to 1993/94 cashflow problems (and unwilling to loan private funds instead of 3rd party investors), it could have ended up worse overall for them. (though had they opted to make the minimum contribution of private funds, it actually could have been a better investment overall -and no interest being accrued by 3rd party creditors)
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Not bad, considering the whole thing was designed by 3 people in 3 years for a million bucks. Meanwhile, Sony and Sega employed 100x the people and spent 100x the money on their consoles.
Yet Sega ended up with rather sloppy/inefficient (at least cost/performance wise) hardware and had massive internal management issues following 1994 (some in 1994, but mainly starting with the Japanese upper management oddly forcing SoA to push the launch date up to spring of 1995 rather than the planned Fall/Summer date -wrong for some many reasons, and totally exacerbating many of Sega's existing problems).
You could argue Atari's management problems were largely tied to funding (except they started slipping almost as soon as Jack -and Mike Katz for that matter- left the company, so there's obviously more to it than that), but that definitely wasn't the case with Sega prior to late 1996.
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Bugs or no bugs, the Jaguar was amazing. In my opinion, it vastly exceeded expectations, by achieving a good portion of the performance, for a tiny fraction of the cost, years ahead of the other next gen consoles. And people who slam it for not beating the Playstation may as well be slamming the 8 year old star of the little league team for not outscoring Barry Bonds.
From a hardware standpoint, certainly, it was probably the best chipset (in terms of overall cost to performance in a given configuration and manufacturer) of anything on the market in 1993 or even '94 (if you restricted the PSX chipset to a single bus and similar component/manufacturing costs to the Jaguar, it might have even been weaker overall -stripping away Sony's vertical integration and volume production, of course, but the Saturn obviously is many times less cost effective -hell, if TOM+JERRY was configured closer to the Saturn, it probably would have had significantly better performance and still cheaper to manufacture than Sega's hardware). That's both a testament to the Flare engineers, and the general emphasis on such a tight, high performance, low-cost optimized design. (if Sega's management had set their far more substantial R&D resources to work on a project of a similarly aggressive, high performance/low cost design, they might have ended up with something even better -probably for a lot more overhead, but also probably cleaner/less buggy and/or in less time- but that obviously wasn't the case -in many respects the Saturn is a really weird design for the aggressive home game console market
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The Jaguar is AWESOME for what it is.

A shame it wasn't pushed as such from the start. There could have been an emphasis on non polygonal 2D+pseudo 3D with minimal use of polygosn when absolutely necessary to make the best of things. (with a gradual evolution of more and more polished games following that formula)
You had plenty of options for scaled 2D, height maps (voxels or doom/wold3D type ray-casting), flat/gouraud shaded/texture mapped polygons, and beyond (interpolated height maps are awesome).
Even focusing on gouraud shaded optimized models more could have been a big help. (you also have numerous games where they probably should have dropped to lower detail/resolution/screen size to allow a more reasonable framerate -even better as an option rather than default only, be even if you forced AvP to have the same resolution as Doom, it probably would have generally been preferable, you could even have extreme cases like a fully texture mapped polygon renderer in a 160x96 window using 2x2 scaled pixels -maybe interpolated- could have been quite useful -you also had some odd cases on the 3DO like Doom where high detail was forced in spite of low framerate -and dropping the screen size was not an attractive option, dropping to 1/2 horizontal or even horizontal and vertical resolution could have made the game far more playable)
Aside from exclusive games, you already had cases like Commanche to start off with. (Cubermorph with voxel landscapes would have been really neat) So a decent starting point to push voxels as well as more options for scaled 2D. Scaled/rotated stuff, warped perspective (mode 7-like) stuff, Wolf 3D, Blake Stone, etc, etc. (a port of Wing Commander 1 and 2 would have been really nice, let alone some scaled arcade games -or clones of those short of actual licenses, or derivatives of scaling heavy lynx games -then there's also the Atari Games polygon and scaling based games, and they were in a fairly decent working relationship with TWI at the time)
A port of X-Wing would have been awesome for the time among various other PC games the Jag was reasonably to exceptionally well suited for.