Is the Nintendo 3DS in trouble?

[Mendon]

I've read a couple of articles recently that state that sales of the 3DS are extremely low and that developers are beginning to cancel projects that they had already announced. Titles that have recently been canceled include Saints Row Drive By, Assassin's Creed: Lost Legacy, Crush 3D, and on Monday Capcom announced that they have canceled Mega Man Legends 3 and Mega Man Universe.

 

Do you think any 3DS problems are only temporary and will be fixed by the holiday's when Nintendo rolls out major titles or is the system really in trouble?

 

If the 3DS is in trouble due to low sales and dwindling 3rd party support, could the Wii U face the same situation when it launches?

 

Are any problems the 3DS is experiencing due to mistakes by Nintendo or is smart phone gaming the culprit?

 

If smart phone gaming is affecting the handheld market, will the PS Vita have the same problems as the 3DS in regards to sales and 3rd party support?

 

 

And finally.... do you think that major changes in customers video game habits.. both buying and playing.... are going to affect the current business models used by Sony, MS, and Nintendo?

 

 

Mendon

 

 

Update: LINK TO KOTAKU STORY ON CANCELLED 3DS GAMES

Edited July 19, 2011 by Mendon

[Pixelboy]

I've read a couple of articles recently that state that sales of the 3DS are extremely low and that developers are beginning to cancel projects that they had already announced. Titles that have recently been canceled include Saints Row Drive By, Assassin's Creed: Lost Legacy, Crush 3D, and on Monday Capcom announced that they have canceled Mega Man Legends 3 and Mega Man Universe.

Capcom is a troubled company at the moment. I'm not surprised to see them cancelling projects like this.

 

Do you think any 3DS problems are only temporary and will be fixed by the holiday's or is the system really in trouble?

The 3DS needs a killer app, it's as simple as that. Re-releasing Ocarina of Time isn't going to cut it. The games make the system, and there are very few interesting games for the 3DS at the moment.

 

If the 3DS is in trouble due to low sales and dwindling 3rd party support, could the Wii U face the same situation when it launches?

Possibly. If gamers find the tablet controller too cumbersome and/or too corny, they may drop the system altogether after a while. And again, the Wii-U needs a killer app to get it started out of the gates with guns blazing.

 

Are any problems the 3DS is experiencing due to mistakes by Nintendo or is smart phone gaming the culprit?

I think Nintendo misread the market. No one really asked for 3D on a gaming handheld, and while 3D does bring new possibilities, it's not the kind of gimmick that will really make the games more fun to play. It's like watching a 3D movie at the theater: You'll notice the 3D effect at the beginning of the movie, but as time passes, you'll just forget about the 3D and just watch the movie itself. If the movie sucks, the 3D isn't going to save it from bad reviews.

 

Also, Nintendo did an absolutely aweful job of promoting the 3DS up until now. It's like they expected fans to go "Wow! Kewl!" at the 3D screen and swallow any game released on the system, with the promise of better games down the line. Problem is, Nintendo fans have gotten wise to Nintendo's business practices, and they now have more of a wait-and-see attitude. For one thing, they are expecting Nintendo to release a "3DS-lite" within the next 18 months or so, so with no killer app for the current incarnation of the 3DS, just sitting and waiting for a price drop (and better games) seems like the best consumer strategy. I believe this essentially explains the very low sales.

 

If the 3DS does cross the same red line as the Virtual Boy and is eventually marked as a failure, I can only hope that the folks at Nintendo will have learned their lesson: Don't take your fan base for granted, and take the time to create at least one true killer app for any new hardware you bring to the market.

 

If smart phone gaming is the next big thing, will the PS Vita have the same problems as the 3DS in regards to sales and 3rd party support?

Don't know, and honestly don't care. The market for smart phones is developing rapidly, and if Sony (or Nintendo) can figure out why people prefer playing games on their smart phones instead of the 3DS or PSP, then perhaps they will learn from that and make adjustments for their future hardware offerings. Me, I'll just be watching from the side lines with a large bag of pop-corn in my hands.

[HuckleCat]

I would say no.

 

The system has not really seen it's first X-mas yet, and that's when most people buy video game consoles. I'd say wait till after the holiday season to make judgments on this.

 

Also, keep in mind, there's really no "big game" out just yet for the 3DS. The original DS sold like crap at first, and there was really no reason to buy it- then Nintendogs came out and everything changed. The system took off and third-parties climbed on board like crazy.

 

I'm guessing once the Metal Gear game comes out for it, then it'll pickup.

 

 

 

Then there's the other possibility, which is that Nintendo has found out that it does do irreparable harm to your eyes long-term, and third parties are sidestepping any future lawsuits by either minimizing involvement, or sidestepping the system altogether.

[godslabrat]

When I first saw this thread, the title made me think "Great, another noob saying the race is over before the horse even leaves the gate." But actually, your questions are very well thought out, and I know you're not a noob, so I'll respond in kind.

 

Do you think any 3DS problems are only temporary and will be fixed by the holiday's when Nintendo rolls out major titles or is the system really in trouble?

 

I'm pretty sure the holidays will be VERY good to the 3DS. Video game consoles in general are hot items, especially portables. Nintendo deliberately launched the 3DS during a slow point in the year, with no A-list titles. To me, that says they're giving themselves time to ramp up production and get people's attention.

 

If the 3DS is in trouble due to low sales and dwindling 3rd party support, could the Wii U face the same situation when it launches?

 

I don't really think the two will really affect each other. Nintendo has, mostly, been able to keep their traditional console and portable console markets seperate, even when they tried their best to combine them. Wii U will sink or swim on its own merits.

 

Are any problems the 3DS is experiencing due to mistakes by Nintendo or is smart phone gaming the culprit?

 

Having a weak lineup of launch games was not a bright move, nor was delaying some of the online features of the system. However, for a slow-season launch, neither is going to be a system-killing mistake.

 

Smartphones? Please. I doubt anyone was looking at Pilotwings or SF4 and said "Oh, cool... but I think I'll just play Angry Birds instead." Smartphone gaming will only get more popular, but it's not going to take away from people wanting more sophisticated games with real control schemes.

 

 

If smart phone gaming is affecting the handheld market, will the PS Vita have the same problems as the 3DS in regards to sales and 3rd party support?

 

YES. Although I'm not worried about the overall future for portable consoles, Nintendo and Sony should be mindful of what would attract a customer to a phone instead of a console. Developers will go where the money is, and there is still plenty of money in developing for portable consoles. That won't change as long as the cost of hardware remains relatively low, and profit per game sold remains fairly high. Unfortunately, Nintendo and Sony are both raising the price of their systems relative to historical prices, but they still have the ability to offer developers a high percentage of each sale. If they're wise, they'll use that as their leverage.

 

 

And finally.... do you think that major changes in customers video game habits.. both buying and playing.... are going to affect the current business models used by Sony, MS, and Nintendo?

 

But of course. We're already seeing that with a decreased focus on physical media and an increased focus on DLC (neither trend impresses me, but I digress). Another important trend is that successful franchises are seeing new installments every year, sometimes twice a year. This is catering to the Gamestop "play it while it's new, then get rid of it" mentality, and it's a backhanded way of combatting used game sales... by keeping new games coming out so fast, no one cares about the old stuff.

 

I don't think the 3DS is *specifically* in trouble, but the industry as a whole is trying to reinvent itself.

[Reaperman]

I don't know if 3ds is a failure on a global scale or not, but I do know that it doesn't appeal to me, and selling me on a system really shouldn't be hard. (granted I'll still bitch about everything, but getting me to be a customer is pretty easy)

 

• I don't like the concept of 2-screens, or how the DS/DSI/3DS features are used.
  
• From the few seconds I've looked at demo units, I was instantly repelled by the 3d effect rather than being attracted to it like a magnet.
  
• There are no 3ds games out now, or on the horizon that I wish to own or play.
  

That's a pretty big failure in my eyes, but I'm fully aware that my opinion isn't the only one that counts. For the life of me, I can't understand any of the draw to nintendo over the last half decade. Because it's such a mystery to me, I'm not going to allow myself to be surprised by sudden 3ds success this xmas.

Edited July 19, 2011 by Reaperman

[Rex Dart]

The 3DS isn't doing well, but whether or not it's in long-term trouble is just a guess. The ol' DS had a disgustingly crappy launch and it wound up being huge. PSP had a fairly decent launch & flopped like a big old floppy thing, flopping across the land.

[AtariLeaf]

Me, I'll just be watching from the side lines with a large bag of pop-corn in my hands.

 

That's pretty much how I feel too.

[HatefulGravey]

Smart phone gaming is popular because people carry phones all the time. They don't need a device for gaming, they have a device that handles what they have to do during the day and also plays some games. I believe it is having a large impact. No one asks questions when I'm holding my phone, I could be texting, checking email, any number of things really. When I bring out the GameBoy people notice. If nothing else I can't play my GameBoy at work, but no one asks questions about why I'm using my phone all day.

 

I would own a 3DS, but the price is still too much for me. I can't see spending that money without a great game or 2 to move me toward it. Now that people are backing out of production of games for the console we might not get that great game or two. If we don't get that great game or two before or around Christmas the 3DS might just flop. I would love to have one, but I'm not spending $250 on one, and I think there are a lot of people like that right now. The economy isn't where it should be and people are feeling that, why spend the money I have for entertainment on something that might not entertain me for long?

 

As for the Wii U, who knows. Nintendo lost me on the Wii, and now they are saying the Wii U will have a controller that cost as much as the console so I certainly wont be feeding Nintendo anymore money. I love the Nintendo cahracters but the games they make with them have gone way down hill since the N64 and when they have the chance to make a great game their contollers get in the way. I can get third party games on the other consoles and what Nintendo makes is crap IMO, so they have more trouble then just this 3DS stuff to worry about with the Wii U.

[akator]

HatefulGravey beat me to mentioning the economy as a major reason the 3DS isn't taking off.

 

Joe Underemployed can't justify spending that money on a 3DS the same way he can a smartphone, since at least with a smartphone he can pretend to be waiting for job calls while playing games.

 

John Unemployed can't afford the 3DS at all because his benefits ended a long time ago and he already has to sell off his Wii to keep the electricity on. (Seriously, a used Wii with games is less than $50 where I live. They are everywhere...)

Edited July 19, 2011 by akator

[Rex Dart]

Well, at least Joe Underemployed has months-to-years to save up money while he waits for a decent game to be released.

[the.golden.ax]

I'm not sure if anyone has said here yet, but one thing I think kills the deal on the 3ds is the lack of showing it off. I've been to a Play N Trade, and another Game store (mom n pop) while both sold the item, neither had it on display. Also, major retailers in my area like Wal-Mart do not have the item on display. If no one knows if it is good or bad, how could they ever want it. The word of mouth hasn't been insane on the product. No one has told me it's totally awesome and a must have. I understand why they can't film it and show how it works. However, that should make them double their effort to display it in stores. Heck get two little guys to go door to door like in the Wii commercial. I for one will not buy in to something I have no idea if I can even see (can't do those 3d hidden image things).

 

AX

[Metal Jesus]

I played around with a 3DS for about 10 minutes with the 3D turned on. While it looked fantastic, my eyes bugged out for about an hour afterwards. The 3DS is not for me.

[StoneAgeGamer]

I think its the games. I have OoT3D and LOVE it, I own N64 version and GC version so this is not new to me. However, if a remake of a 10+ year old game is your only hot title then you got a problem. IMO all Nintendo systems should launch with a Mario game. Simple as that. A good Mario game sells systems.

[Rex Dart]

I think its the games. I have OoT3D and LOVE it, I own N64 version and GC version so this is not new to me. However, if a remake of a 10+ year old game is your only hot title then you got a problem. IMO all Nintendo systems should launch with a Mario game. Simple as that. A good Mario game sells systems.

 

 

Absolutely! You think it was F-Zero, Super Tennis, Gradius (as good as they were) that got me begging for a SNES? Nope, it was Mario World.

[akator]

I'm not sure if anyone has said here yet, but one thing I think kills the deal on the 3ds is the lack of showing it off. I've been to a Play N Trade, and another Game store (mom n pop) while both sold the item, neither had it on display. Also, major retailers in my area like Wal-Mart do not have the item on display. If no one knows if it is good or bad, how could they ever want it. The word of mouth hasn't been insane on the product. No one has told me it's totally awesome and a must have. I understand why they can't film it and show how it works. However, that should make them double their effort to display it in stores. Heck get two little guys to go door to door like in the Wii commercial. I for one will not buy in to something I have no idea if I can even see (can't do those 3d hidden image things).

 

AX

 

Agreed, that is a massive problem. When I finally saw one at a Game Stop, I was psyched...

 

... until the only game they had for demo was Street Fighter. With most of the cut scenes in 2D. If they had Ridge Racer on display, and I could have played it, I probably would have walked out with a 3DS on the spot. My wife was surprised when I got home empty handed.

 

$300 lost to Game Stop and Nintendo because they only demo'd Street Fighter. And my impulse to buy one was gone, because once I was home I realized how stupid it was to spend $300 on a handheld with only a few games I was interested in.

[Reaperman]

Absolutely! You think it was F-Zero, Super Tennis, Gradius (as good as they were) that got me begging for a SNES? Nope, it was Mario World.

A new mario couldn't hurt. I have to think back a good long ways to think of a main-line mario built for handhelds. Maybe my memory is shot, because all I can think of in recent years are rehashes of console titles. How odd, I never really noticed before.

 

Edit: I guess the last one would have been super wario land (SML3)--or even super mario land 2, to get one with mario actually in it--correct? It can't have really been that long ago for an original handheld mario, right?

Edited July 19, 2011 by Reaperman

[HatefulGravey]

How is the backwards compatablity on this system? A big selling point for GameBoy has always been it playing the older games too. I wanted, and didn't buy, the giant DSi thing (I can't remember what it was called right now) because it wouldn't play GBA. Does the 3DS atleast play DS titles? Not that there were a ton of those I loved but there were enough. Also, when people buy a new system it is nice to know they haven't made their old games useless. People think about that when they are buying.

 

Its kind of a shame them, I would have loved to play those Mega Man games that got canned.

[+atari2600land]

What about New Super Mario Bros. for the DS?

 

Anyway, I'm not getting a 3DS. I'm waiting for the PS Vita to launch. I've been a Nintendo fanboy for a long time, but this stupid "everything has to be 3D or else it sucks" thing has come to video games, apparently. I don't care if my TV is in 3D, I don't care if my movies are in 3D, and I don't care if my video games are in 3D. If Nintendo can get someone like me to not buy a 3DS, then they must be doing something very wrong. The PS Vita will have a killer app right out of the gate with Sound Shapes. The 3DS had NOTHING. No Mario game, no Zelda game, just Pilotwings and Nintendogs. I have to wonder why Nintendo has NOT released a Mario game with a system since the N64 (and I'm not counting Super Mario Advance. Who cares about playing SMB2 on a handheld. That was a stupid move, just maybe one of the first.)

 

 

[thegamezmaster]

I think its the games. I have OoT3D and LOVE it, I own N64 version and GC version so this is not new to me. However, if a remake of a 10+ year old game is your only hot title then you got a problem. IMO all Nintendo systems should launch with a Mario game. Simple as that. A good Mario game sells systems.

 

 

I agree. Plus I think it has to do with the prices. Handhelds as much as a console just doesn't make sense to me.

[keilbaca]

Absolutely! You think it was F-Zero, Super Tennis, Gradius (as good as they were) that got me begging for a SNES? Nope, it was Mario World.

A new mario couldn't hurt. I have to think back a good long ways to think of a main-line mario built for handhelds. Maybe my memory is shot, because all I can think of in recent years are rehashes of console titles. How odd, I never really noticed before.

 

Edit: I guess the last one would have been super wario land (SML3)--or even super mario land 2, to get one with mario actually in it--correct? It can't have really been that long ago for an original handheld mario, right?

 

The New Super Mario Bros for the DS was amazing, I still play it.

 

Its mainly the cost I think. Most people already has a ds, and they just can't justify getting a 3DS yet for the lineup of games.

 

However, if they throw a Gradius on the 3DS, I'll buy it. I didn't buy the ps3 when they cancelled Gradius 6.

[Reaperman]

The New Super Mario Bros for the DS was amazing, I still play it.

You guys are right, I had forgotten that the DS version was out first. Heck it may even be a totally different game from the Wii version for all I know.

Edited July 19, 2011 by Reaperman

[keilbaca]

The New Super Mario Bros for the DS was amazing, I still play it.

You guys are right, I had forgotten that the DS version was out first. Heck it may even be a totally different game from the Wii version for all I know.

 

It is different, the main thing being 4 player mode, but the levels are different. Very different, and fun in their own way. NSMB DS is more classic, and the Wii version has lots of scrolling levels. That game loves its forced vertical levels.

[AtariLeaf]

I'm not sure if anyone has said here yet, but one thing I think kills the deal on the 3ds is the lack of showing it off. I've been to a Play N Trade, and another Game store (mom n pop) while both sold the item, neither had it on display. Also, major retailers in my area like Wal-Mart do not have the item on display. If no one knows if it is good or bad, how could they ever want it. The word of mouth hasn't been insane on the product. No one has told me it's totally awesome and a must have. I understand why they can't film it and show how it works. However, that should make them double their effort to display it in stores. Heck get two little guys to go door to door like in the Wii commercial. I for one will not buy in to something I have no idea if I can even see (can't do those 3d hidden image things).

 

AX

 

Good point, I haven't gone out of my way looking to see one of these but until you mentioned this, I've yet to any store in my area have one displayed that you can try.

[A_Locomotive]

I'm not sure if anyone has said here yet, but one thing I think kills the deal on the 3ds is the lack of showing it off. I've been to a Play N Trade, and another Game store (mom n pop) while both sold the item, neither had it on display. Also, major retailers in my area like Wal-Mart do not have the item on display. If no one knows if it is good or bad, how could they ever want it. The word of mouth hasn't been insane on the product. No one has told me it's totally awesome and a must have. I understand why they can't film it and show how it works. However, that should make them double their effort to display it in stores. Heck get two little guys to go door to door like in the Wii commercial. I for one will not buy in to something I have no idea if I can even see (can't do those 3d hidden image things).

 

AX

 

Along these same lines I have yet to see one in store demoing something fun that really shows off the 3d. Only game I've seen is Pilotwings and I must say it bores the shit out of me, I'm not gonna bit till I can actually play something that really wows me and a game were you slowly fly or float around sure as hell isn't doing it.

[Rex Dart]

Along these same lines I have yet to see one in store demoing something fun that really shows off the 3d. Only game I've seen is Pilotwings and I must say it bores the shit out of me, I'm not gonna bit till I can actually play something that really wows me and a game were you slowly fly or float around sure as hell isn't doing it.

 

It's not the stores' fault.