6 replies to this topic

[SoulBlazer]

Came across this article on Yahoo today that they re-posted from Digital Trends. It's very well written and makes some very good arguments as to why it's a good thing we're going to be waiting a over a year for another console from MS or Sony:

http://news.yahoo.co...BHRlc3QD;_ylv=3

[jaybird3rd]

Here's another take on the issue from Don Daglow:

Quote

Nintendo has been making good money on every Wii they sell. They may do a hardware upgrade, but their strategy rests on NOT triggering another Console War. At the start of each recent Console War, Microsoft and Sony have invested billions to develop new systems, then subsidized every gamer's trip to GameStop or Best Buy by selling the machines at a loss. Later in the cycle they make a small profit on the hardware.

(...)

The PS2 vs. Xbox war was a mano-a-mano fight. Sony sold over 100 million PS2's worldwide, Microsoft gained market share. Both were ready for the next round. The script for the PS3 vs 360 war was disrupted by the Wii. High-res graphics and Sony's Blu-ray player made the new consoles expensive, but the Wii was cheap. PS3 and the 360 were aimed at "early adopter" game fanatics, the Wii was aimed at families and casual players. 360 and PS3 players used complex controllers, the Wii used a new kind of magic wand. Rounds 1, 2 and 3 of this fight went to Nintendo. Only this year has the momentum started to shift back to the high-end machines.

(...)

No one will start another Console War until they've made a profit out of this one. Not in this economy. Not with used games draining revenue. Not with too few dollars divided among too many companies.

Personally, I'm glad the console development cycle seems to be slowing down. The current systems still have plenty of life left in them. When consoles are killed off before developers learn to fully exploit what they can do, they have to start all over again with a new system and all the troubles that come with it: coping with buggy and expensive hardware, learning the new hardware and development tools, etc.

[GroovyBee]

jaybird3rd, on Thu Feb 2, 2012 8:39 AM, said:

The current systems still have plenty of life left in them.

So do some of the old ones .

[Metal Ghost]

That is a very good read, and I agree with much of what Mr. Fleming has to say. I, for one, am also nt clammoring for a new console.

I disagree with some of what he states however. I don't have proof to refute these things, but then again he offers no proff either, and I simply don't agree with his statements of whether things are 'likely' or 'unlikely'.

• When he seems to make the arguement that whenever Microsoft launches a new console, they will be ignoring their content deals with parties such as ESPN, Hulu, Comcast and others, whether that's in one year or 3 years after the fruits of those agreements have been available to the public. He thinks this because while "Those deals may have clauses that tie the partnerships into the next console, but it seems unlikely that major corporations would agree to a deal involving hardware that hadn’t even been built yet.".
  
  • I don't agree with this. I find it much more likely that Microsoft negotiated those deals to be contingent on offering content via Xbox Live, regardless of hardware platforms and specifications. I can't believe that, as an analogy, Samsung has a deal negotiated with Netflix to offer their service with very specificly identified networked TV's and opitical media players. Instead, it's probably tied to whatever devices Samsung offers that include their Smart Hub.
• He seems caught up on a 10 year life cycle being the 'right' number, and anything less is wrong. Again, I wouldn't mind getting a full 10 years out of my 360 (I've had one since launch), but 8 years represents double the amount of time that the original Xbox was on the market, and at least as long (if not much longer than) as the majority of consoles that have been released over the years.
  
• "The jump from the Xbox and PS2 to the Xbox 360 and PS3 was also noticeably impressive, and the entire experience was immediately better thanks to more possibilities in the games, a built-in online community, and better graphics. The next generation of consoles won’t have that advantage."
  
  • I don't know if people remember, but when the 360 launched a lot of people were surprised that the graphics weren't just that much better than the original Xbox. This was less of an issue with the PS3 simply because the PS2 was older than the Xbox and the PS3 was launched a year later, so the difference in age between the PS2 and PS3 was greater. But then the issue was that the graphics weren't just that much better than the 360 (and in fact were only just as good or sometimes not even as good)! My point is that this isn't a new discussion point, and the graphics when a console is released will typically always be the weakest of that consoles life due to learning curve.

Being a console manufacturer is a very tough place to be in. He states that "The last few months of 2011 showed that games were still firing on all cylinders....". But you just don't know how much wind will be taken out of the competitions' sales once the Wii U is released, and said competition has to be prepared for that.

But like I said, overall I completely agree with the column's author. And there's still a lot of price to be removed from both the Xbox 360 and the PS3 before everything's been said and done, which should easily take them through 2013, if not holiday 2014. Plus, I think that MIcrosoft has shown that your console can really be reborn with software updates. Now there's Bing integration, new content, new user interface, which really refreshes the console immensely. Not to mention that Kinect shows that you can launch a peripheral to great success that can stand on its own legs and yet not noticeably fragment the user base. I'm sure that the same type of stuff is happening on the PS3. Such refreshes were never really possible until this generation.

[VW]

I think the next wave of consoles are going to be in for a rough ride. X360 and PS3 came along at a time when people were getting new HDTVs and wanted gaming consoles that would take advantage of HDTV's higher resolution. This was at a time that the PS2/Xbox I think looked as good as you would notice on an SDTV. The next wave of consoles will have higher quality graphics but people aren't going to be having better quality TVs. I think most people are just fine with what the PS3 and X360 already offer, especially with all the internet integration like Netflix being in the consoles and additions like Kinect and the Move as well. I think the jump in quality between the PS3 and PS4 won't be anywhere near the leap in quality the PS2 to PS3 was since part of that leap was the better quality screen.

[moycon]

They can hold off on new consoles for another 3 year in my opinion. Still loving this gen of consoles. Besides, it'll take me at least that long to get through my back-log of games!!

[Mord]

VW, on Fri Feb 3, 2012 3:18 PM, said:

I think the next wave of consoles are going to be in for a rough ride. X360 and PS3 came along at a time when people were getting new HDTVs and wanted gaming consoles that would take advantage of HDTV's higher resolution.

I agree with this. Another thing to consider is that they launched in 2006 - before the economy crashed in 2008. Even most of the people that had money to burn $500+ on a console back then likely would have a bit more trouble embracing the same today regardless of if they wanted to or not.