18 replies to this topic

[Cybergoth]

Hi there!

Here's a thought I'd like to hear your opinions on, just some silly math based on heavy guessing of mine...

=========

Assuming a good game sells 2 Million copies, 1 million of which get sold used.

Now the standard bigger, better, more sequel comes out, that is bought by let's say 80% of people who liked the first.

That would be 2.4 Million copies

Now after killing the used game market

That would be only 1.6 Million copies

=========

Maybe I'm missing something essential here, but how will companies manage to ever grow a franchise once they limit their target audience for a sequel to just the people that bought the first game? As I see it they'd be just cutting their own flesh in the long run...

Greetings,
Manuel

[keilbaca]

Cybergoth, on Thu Feb 9, 2012 1:58 PM, said:

Hi there!

Here's a thought I'd like to hear your opinions on, just some silly math based on heavy guessing of mine...

=========

Assuming a good game sells 2 Million copies, 1 million of which get sold used.

Now the standard bigger, better, more sequel comes out, that is bought by let's say 80% of people who liked the first.

That would be 2.4 Million copies

Now after killing the used game market

That would be only 1.6 Million copies

=========

Maybe I'm missing something essential here, but how will companies manage to ever grow a franchise once they limit their target audience for a sequel to just the people that bought the first game? As I see it they'd be just cutting their own flesh in the long run...

Greetings,
Manuel

They feel that if they only sell the games new, people would HAVE to buy it new, therefore they get a share of every single game being sold. They're getting greedy, and its going to be the final straw to cause the next video game crash.

[Chuck D. Head]

I said it before and I will say it again:

If I buy a game and don't like it, I want to at least be able to cut my losses and sell my $50 piece of crap for $25. If I cant do that, then said new game is only worth $25 to me. If they want to charge any more than that, then I have a few thousand old games that will keep me busy until I turn to dust; so however many unsold copies of Call of Ops 13 they wind up with that don't fit up their greedy asses will have to be buried in the desert.

[Red 5]

This will also kill GameStop and GameFly. GameFly would be impossible to run and GameStop would go out of business since more than half of their profit is used games.

While I am all for the death of GameStop, I will truly miss GameFly.

[MagitekAngel]

Sooner or later we're just going to all have to learn to grow our own food, sew our own clothes, and program our own homebrews.

[Atariboy]

There's so many great games on earlier systems that I'll never even get to see the start up screens on before I kick the bucket that I'm not too terribly concerned. If they all but kill current generation gaming and force me to just buy games as I play them, I'll survive I suppose. It just leaves more time and money to put towards classic gaming, which isn't a bad trade off.

Although I doubt I'll ever stop playing current generation games completely. I might threaten to, but I don't see ever drawing back completely from modern gaming. I'll likely just switch to buying and playing through 2-3 games a year rather than building up a library as I go with the expectation of playing through it in the coming years like I have been doing.

I even see many independents and small studios and such hating on the used game market. They're in for a shock if I'm any indication. If I'm buying just what I have time to play, I'm sticking with known quantites like Zelda games. Gone will be the days where I do something like pick up Red Faction for $10 used on the PS2 thinking I'm not out much if I don't like it, and subsequently going out and buying rereleases for the newer games and eventually buying them as they come out.

Take away my options and freedom is going to just force me to play it safe with what few purchases I do make. Gone will be things like blind buys and such.

[Bilnick]

Cybergoth, on Thu Feb 9, 2012 1:58 PM, said:

Hi there!

Here's a thought I'd like to hear your opinions on, just some silly math based on heavy guessing of mine...

=========

Assuming a good game sells 2 Million copies, 1 million of which get sold used.

Now the standard bigger, better, more sequel comes out, that is bought by let's say 80% of people who liked the first.

That would be 2.4 Million copies

Now after killing the used game market

That would be only 1.6 Million copies

=========

Maybe I'm missing something essential here, but how will companies manage to ever grow a franchise once they limit their target audience for a sequel to just the people that bought the first game? As I see it they'd be just cutting their own flesh in the long run...

Greetings,
Manuel

Why do you assume that the people who bought the first game used would buy the sequel new?

A franchise can grow even if it sells to a smaller percentage of the user base year to year. If a game sells to 10% of a user base of 10 million Xbox 720 userss one year, but only 8% of 20 million Xbox 720 users two years later, the franchise grew by 60%.

[ninjarabbit]

Not to mention that the sale of used games often goes to fund the purchase of new games. A 13 year old kid without a job is going to have a hard time keeping up without the ability to trade in games.

[raskar42]

I wonder how eliminating the used car market would affect car sales.

Edited by raskar42, Thu Feb 9, 2012 6:50 PM.

[Reaperman]

raskar42, on Thu Feb 9, 2012 6:46 PM, said:

I wonder how eliminating the used car market would affect car sales.

My first guess is that 'disposable cars' cars (say, from korea) would thrive on the customers who used to buy nicer cars used--because many people need cars to maintain their lifestyle.

hmmm... Thinking further, if they tied new cars to their specific users using some technology, what would it do for the value of older cars that don't have that 'feature,' devices/hacks to get around that 'feature,' or cars from 'the other brand' who never went down that path?

[ninjarabbit]

raskar42, on Thu Feb 9, 2012 6:46 PM, said:

I wonder how eliminating the used car market would affect car sales.

Given how most people trade in their old cars to bring down the cost of their new cars it's safe to say it would significantly drop new car sales. People would hold on to their old cars even longer.

At the end of the day trying to get rid of the used game market is the game industry is being shortsighted and basically cutting off the hand to spite the thumb.

[godslabrat]

keilbaca, on Thu Feb 9, 2012 2:39 PM, said:

They feel that if they only sell the games new, people would HAVE to buy it new, therefore they get a share of every single game being sold.

Goose. Golden egg.

[Mord]

Bilnick, on Thu Feb 9, 2012 4:45 PM, said:

Why do you assume that the people who bought the first game used would buy the sequel new?

Because it happens. There are series I've picked up new for the later games only after having managed to get the first game or two cheap secondhand. Gamestop's practice of selling used at near-new prices isn't the majority of the used market like the game industry would like people to believe. They're just the most visible.

Quote

A franchise can grow even if it sells to a smaller percentage of the user base year to year. If a game sells to 10% of a user base of 10 million Xbox 720 userss one year, but only 8% of 20 million Xbox 720 users two years later, the franchise grew by 60%.

That assumes that a large percentage of new people with the console are interested in the franchise by default, and it assumes the console takes off and can double it's consoles sold to begin with. Even still, by applying the used games aspect onto your theory then the franchise will grow even MORE. But it comes down to the fact that without used games, they'll have to go back and try to find the earlier games new - and except for triple A titles that's not going to be very easy as they will be out of production by then in most cases and if there is a demand for the game still, you can expect the average selling price to be higher than it's launch price. This would further ensure people would just not care and go play the latest FPS being released.

[emkay]

If there only was the 1 step selling, without the allowing of re-selling a product, things would get hard
Particular softwaredistributors have to learn this, and well, many did already.
PD Software, Shareware, Demos.... free2play with paying content....

There are only 2 good ways to sell software.

One of them already took place in mobile playing.

The other way still is to create Collector Editions, where the boxing around the software has it's own value to the customer, so he'll not re-sell it.

In some years the whole discussion would get obsolete

[Lord Helmet]

Red 5, on Thu Feb 9, 2012 2:58 PM, said:

This will also kill GameStop and GameFly. GameFly would be impossible to run and GameStop would go out of business since more than half of their profit is used games.

While I am all for the death of GameStop, I will truly miss GameFly.

Me too. I only buy games if I've rented them from GameFly and decided to keep them. I'm not about to plunk down $60 on a game that has the potential to suck. You can't trust media reviews of games since many times those reviews have been 'bought'.

[Vic George 2K3]

If the companies want to drive the gaming industry into the ground with preventing the sale of used games, I hope they will be happy with the consequences. But I doubt that they will.

[Keatah]

ninjarabbit, on Thu Feb 9, 2012 5:48 PM, said:

Not to mention that the sale of used games often goes to fund the purchase of new games. A 13 year old kid without a job is going to have a hard time keeping up without the ability to trade in games.

Why do we have to "keep up" anyways?

[Keatah]

Lord Helmet, on Fri Feb 10, 2012 11:31 AM, said:

Red 5, on Thu Feb 9, 2012 2:58 PM, said:

This will also kill GameStop and GameFly. GameFly would be impossible to run and GameStop would go out of business since more than half of their profit is used games.

While I am all for the death of GameStop, I will truly miss GameFly.

Me too. I only buy games if I've rented them from GameFly and decided to keep them. I'm not about to plunk down $60 on a game that has the potential to suck. You can't trust media reviews of games since many times those reviews have been 'bought'.

I rarely pay attention to reviews. It is doubtful the author of the review thinks and games and does computing exactly the way I do it. And the review will be biased and bought off anyways. So why bother? And this goes for games and computer programs, both modern and classic.

All I need to determine if something is worth looking into is a few screenshots and the basic synopsis.

[toptenmaterial]

Eliminating the used game market would send the sales of apps and phone games to the top. It's not like kids would suddenly start playing outside again.