27 replies to this topic

[ComputerSpaceFan]

So Seamus Blackley and the Atari "Golden Age" Veterans have some interesting points up on IGNright now about how gaming today is like arcade gaming back in 1982.

Anyone else think we might be headed for another crash?
I know there's a thread about us headed back to another video game crash on here somewhere but I couldn't find it.

[MagitekAngel]

The single best defense we have against another crash is the internet.
In 1982 there was no IGN or Gametrailers or Metacritic or what-have-you for the consumers to turn to to inform their purchases. So when the shovelware started to pile up and the industry got choked with too many consoles, there was no reliable resource by which consumers might discern the diamonds in the rough. With the relative certainty that most of what was on the shelves would be crap, and no way to find out otherwise, the market crashed.

[Austin]

Too many people play games these days in some form or another for it to "crash".

[Hatta]

I sure hope so. A crash will hurt the big guys a lot more than the little guys. They need to feel some pain.

[moycon]

Videogames have surpassed even films as one of the most popular forms of entertainment today.
It is a $65 billion dollar a year industry, and is more popular today than it ever has been.

I compare people who forsee a video game crash to people who stand on the corner of metropolitan cities with signs that say "The End Is Near"
They have been doing it for decades, but fact is, the end is not near.

[ninjarabbit]

Maybe not a crash but there will be a shake-up in the industry sooner rather than later. Development costs are getting higher and higher, especially with the next gen looming in a couple of years, and we're already at the point where a game has to be a superblockbuster just to break even. It's getting to the point where middle-tier developers will have to make a choice: go all in with the superblockbusters or develop cheap casual games and stick with the handhelds. Meanwhile the big companies will take fewer and fewer chances and just take the safe route because of the high costs.

[Cynicaster]

Don't see it happening. In 1982, video games were in their infancy, and everybody thought they could throw their hat into the ring and make a quick buck on the "fad". Now, videogames are ingrained in the culture, and are no more a fad than TV. There will be a healthy demand for the foreseeable future.

[ComputerSpaceFan]

So these sales figuresdon't concern anyone? Nor the fact that Sony has been downgraded by Standard and Poor's?

[moycon]

ninjarabbit, on Thu Feb 9, 2012 5:55 PM, said:

where middle-tier developers will have to make a choice: go all in with the superblockbusters or develop cheap casual games and stick with the handhelds

Sounds nice!! I think these days gamers don't need 800 games available to them on any single console. I for one would have 200 games available for any given generation, all high quality, all solid in the gameplay department. The entertainment options available to people today compared to 25 years ago, heck even 10 years ago is pretty significant. Think back when you were 15 years old. One single VHS tape costs as much as $99.99. Now you can watch that same movie, and thousands others at a press of a button for free, or you can pay a small fee and watch thousands more on Netflix or Amazon etc... The same can be said of video games. If I am going to drive out, and purchase a pricey video game in a brick and mortar store, I don't need a glut of sub-par games.

If game companies want to invest more time, more effort and more money to release a high quality product that guarantees a return, even banding together to do it. Great for me as a gamer! For all the other other people who think franchised games are all the same and suck. There are literally millions of games available to that person on consoles, PC's, smart phones and handhelds. You can find PC games, online games, indie games, classic Games, etc... often for free or a small fee.
The video game industry is HUGE. A person just has to focus on the games that make them happy, and not focus on the other games that don't make them happy. But in the end, the fact they don't like every game available does not mean in the least that there is about to be a crash. What it sounds like is they simply have trouble focusing on things that make them happy, and imagining something is going on that isn't because of it. Again, The end is NOT near.

And no ComputerSpaceFan, Sony's sales figures do not mean the video game industry is crashing in my opinion. If a person hasn't heard the woes of Sony these past few years they haven't really done much research into the subject. Sony is certainly a player in the industry, but thankfully they aren't the only player.

[Reaperman]

It won't crash--I think that was mostly about a fad wearing thin. Gaming will get more and more miserable until most of us *ahem* "experienced" gamers drop out, but as long as people still keep having kids, and using video games to entertain them, something will be around.

We're already seeing games leaning toward gift price points, and low quality. Who knows, maybe it can get even worse.

Edited by Reaperman, Thu Feb 9, 2012 7:22 PM.

[Austin]

All the speculation that goes around in the modern gaming section here makes my head hurt.

[xg4bx]

MagitekAngel, on Thu Feb 9, 2012 3:29 PM, said:

The single best defense we have against another crash is the internet.
In 1982 there was no IGN or Gametrailers or Metacritic or what-have-you for the consumers to turn to to inform their purchases. So when the shovelware started to pile up and the industry got choked with too many consoles, there was no reliable resource by which consumers might discern the diamonds in the rough. With the relative certainty that most of what was on the shelves would be crap, and no way to find out otherwise, the market crashed.

considering the blatant payola that goes on with reviewers these days i've had better luck with blind buys than the "omfg AAA blockbuster" reviewed games. almost every game that comes out is an 8 or a 9? really?

today's reviewers are cowards. they're so afraid of pissing off advertisers or losing page hits to fanboys who can't accept that uncharted isn't a 15/10 that they don't dare be honest. oh they're honest with games nobody gives a shit about like the 1.3/10 i saw for Neverdead but when it comes to games that clearly deserve no more than a 7 like call of duty they clam right the f up.

are the "gatekeepers" being in the tank with publishers really better than no reviews at all?

Edited by xg4bx, Thu Feb 9, 2012 7:38 PM.

[onlysublime]

ComputerSpaceFan, on Thu Feb 9, 2012 6:35 PM, said:

So these sales figuresdon't concern anyone? Nor the fact that Sony has been downgraded by Standard and Poor's?

gaming won't be crashing any time soon. and your chart shows the 360 soaring to new heights and the PS3 making decent growth.

[HammR25]

About all the article really does is state the obvious. Arcade games and mobile games are just mini games. It says absolutely nothing about today's gaming industry. I'm not sure why mobile gaming would crash. No one buys a phone to play games. They buy it to be a phone and the rest is incidental. It's probably good that people go from game to game and don't spend much time with one . That means they're buying more games.

To sum up what I'm thinking:

[JamesD]

I think the shovelware companies might suffer but the better titles will continue to do well.

[HatefulGravey]

I love the games at gift price new in the store. Those are there so grandma can get the kids a video game for their grandchild for Christmas without breaking the bank. This is how most Wii games work IMO. Its a trash game, but its $15 so grandma can feel good about what she got for the kid. There are a pile of companies making Wii games that profit only from this level of consumer abuse only it would seem.

I can asure those wondering about it that people do in fact buy cell phones based on the games they can play. Some people don't want to be seen as gamers. Playing games is a childish thing to them. They wont buy a GameBoy but they will buy a smart phone so they can play Angry Birds on the john. Its just a phone, no one has to know. Then there are those that are more open about it, and they are buying the phone so they can have a game or two with them at all times. I sell phones to people just because they want something that can play games every day.

[Cynicaster]

onlysublime, on Thu Feb 9, 2012 7:35 PM, said:

ComputerSpaceFan, on Thu Feb 9, 2012 6:35 PM, said:

So these sales figuresdon't concern anyone? Nor the fact that Sony has been downgraded by Standard and Poor's?

gaming won't be crashing any time soon. and your chart shows the 360 soaring to new heights and the PS3 making decent growth.

I thought the same thing. What that chart says to me is that the current-gen XBOX is outperforming the previous one, and the sales figures for the current-gen Playstation are at least comparable to the previous one. For Nintendo, their current offering is outright trouncing its predecessors. This all looks pretty healthy to me, especially against the backdrop of a casual game/iOS invasion and a dismal economic climate.

Edited by Cynicaster, Fri Feb 10, 2012 12:01 PM.

[VW]

I think there is a crash coming (check out EA's stock price lately for entertaining viewing) like 1982 but for the opposite reason. In 1982, the shelves were filled with crap but now they are filled with decent games. There are more good games available now than there is time to play them. I am a rabid video game player but I now have a huge backlog of games and many people have this problem. This means I can afford to wait a year to buy any game that comes out and get it for $20 instead of $60. I have noticed that most new $60 games can be found for $40 sometimes even a month or two after release.

Edited by VW, Fri Feb 10, 2012 12:22 PM.

[Rex Dart]

Austin, on Thu Feb 9, 2012 7:28 PM, said:

All the speculation that goes around in the modern gaming section here makes my head hurt.

Does get annoying, all the people constantly telling you How The Future Is Going To Be.

[JamesD]

ComputerSpaceFan, on Thu Feb 9, 2012 6:35 PM, said:

So these sales figuresdon't concern anyone? Nor the fact that Sony has been downgraded by Standard and Poor's?

That graph tells me that people finally figured out the Wii isn't hi-def and casual gamers are a fickle bunch.
It also tells me the motion control advantage shifted from Wii to XBOX 360.

[Mord]

moycon, on Thu Feb 9, 2012 6:36 PM, said:

ninjarabbit, on Thu Feb 9, 2012 5:55 PM, said:

where middle-tier developers will have to make a choice: go all in with the superblockbusters or develop cheap casual games and stick with the handhelds

Sounds nice!! I think these days gamers don't need 800 games available to them on any single console. I for one would have 200 games available for any given generation, all high quality, all solid in the gameplay department.

Eh. You're assuming that fewer titles = greater quality. They aren't related by any means. At best you'd just have less shovelware with the quality of anything else being unaffected. Since most people who are paying attention to the gaming scene are already avoiding shovelware, they won't notice a difference. Of course this means niche titles will vanish as well.

A crash like the one in the 80's, for the types of reasons of the 80's, is pretty easy to avoid. If the console industry crashes, it'll likely be because of the various things they're doing to suck 100 dollars per title out of everybody. And it won't mean the end of video games - people will just move to other platforms or start playing the things they've been sitting on for years.

One thing is for sure, video game companies need to learn how to budget properly.

[onlysublime]

Mord, on Fri Feb 10, 2012 2:29 PM, said:

Eh. You're assuming that fewer titles = greater quality. They aren't related by any means.

No kidding. that would mean the best consoles would be the Virtual Boy and the Jaguar.

[HatefulGravey]

onlysublime, on Fri Feb 10, 2012 2:49 PM, said:

Mord, on Fri Feb 10, 2012 2:29 PM, said:

Eh. You're assuming that fewer titles = greater quality. They aren't related by any means.

No kidding. that would mean the best consoles would be the Virtual Boy and the Jaguar.

Aren't they?

[Random Terrain]

Rex Dart, on Fri Feb 10, 2012 12:52 PM, said:

Does get annoying, all the people constantly telling you How The Future Is Going To Be.

This is 2012.There is no future. Now play your games before the aliens come to suck out your brain.

[HuckleCat]

I have to agree with others that also feel that there is no crash imminent.

I think this view is mainly coming from older gamers that feel that "things just ain't what they used to be", when the real deal is that they just are refusing to admit or realize that they simply don't like video games as much as they used to.