Yes, although the Fairchild and the first Oddessy and at least one other console came out before the 2600. I think you're on the right track though - timing + games = success ... usually. The only console that I can think of that didn't take off in that respect was the Dreamcast but a combination of abandoning consoles (which you noted) and the inability to weather the "lose money on every console and hope to make it back eventually on games" model that the market had shifted to killed it off.
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NES come out a year befor SMS and 7800. Again established fanbase made the difference. They also had the ultimate side scrolling platformer for the time.
That and the tendency to bully developers and retail chains to give the NES an advantage.
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Side note: Genesis initial unpopularity was due to the fact Sega Master System was so poorly supported for only 3 years 86-89.
That, and when they launched, Nintendo's bully tactics were just beginning to be investigated by the US Trade Commission. Nintendo loosened up, Sega got EA on board + good conversions of their own games and the Genesis became the mouse that roared. The "fly on the wall that needed to be swatted" (according to an arrogant Nintendo), turned into a gorilla that kicked Nintendo off their domination pedistal.













