I think there is a practical limit to how advanced homebrew games can become, and as you move up the foodchain with platforms, expectations from (most) gamers increase.
Manpower, not hardware, becomes the limitation.
Games that an individual developer can pull off in his spare time are best targetted to platforms that can barely deliver on that developer's level of artistic skills and free time.
I'm already seeing trouble with the Prince of Persia 2600 project, for instance, because of the need for sprite artwork. Leprechaun will eventually need a lot of volunteer level creators.
If even within the 2600 environment it's possible for artistic demands to oustrip supply, then I think it's unrealistic that homebrewing will scale on to newer and newer systems ad infinitum.
If it does progress, I think we will see a leveling off in the graphics to the point where the artwork just doesn't come close to maximizing what the platform can do. As the gap between what the developer can deliver and what the hardware can deliver widens, I see the level of appreciation for these games and the resulting media attention diminish accordingly.
So I'm sure there will be homebrewing, but it just won't seem to "matter" as much. You won't see, for instance, 20 years down the road, someone interviewing a PSP homebrewer on TV like Paul Slocum got interviewed for his 2600 work because there is no way an individual homebrewer will be able to deliver a game at that time that will come close to looking like even the first batch of PSP titles. So nobody is going to give a crap. You'd probably still see media attention for any remaining 2600 homebrewers, however, no matter how primitive their games may look compared to the future state-of-the-art. It's all about context.
Edited by mos6507, Mon Jan 30, 2006 2:53 AM.